fa شناسایی پیشران های کلیدی موثر بر آینده تغییر اقلیم و تاب آوری شهر اصفهان آینده پژوهی Futurology پژوهشي Research <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:Tahoma;"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri=""><span arial="" lang="FA">یکی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">از</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">بزرگ‌ترین</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">چالش‌های</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">قرن</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">حاضر،</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">پدیده</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تغییر</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">اقلیم</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">می‌باشد.</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">افزایش</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تعداد</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">و</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">شدت</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">بروز</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">بلایای</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">طبیعی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تحت</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تأثیر</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تغییر اقلیم</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">منجر</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">به</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">پیامدهای</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">ناگوار</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">در</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">ابعاد</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">مختلف</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">اقتصادی،</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">اجتماعی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">و</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">زیست‌محیطی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">در</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">شهرها</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">شده</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">است.</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">از</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">طرفی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">دیگر،</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">در دهه‌های</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">اخیر،</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تلاش‌های</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">جهانی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">و</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">دیدگاه‌های</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">مختلفی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">برای</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">کاهش</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">عواقب</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">مخرب</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تغییرات</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">اقلیمی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">ارائه‌شده</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">است.</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">یکی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">از مهم‌ترین</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">راهکارها</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">در</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">مقابله</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">با</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">این</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">مسائل،</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">رویکرد</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تاب‌آوری</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">شهری</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">در</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">پاسخ</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">به</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تغییرات</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">اقلیمی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">است</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">که</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تحت</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">عنوان</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تاب‌آوری </span><span arial="" lang="AR-SA">اقلیمی</span> <span arial="" lang="AR-SA">مطرح</span> <span arial="" lang="AR-SA">می‌باشد. </span><span arial="" lang="FA">این پژوهش ازلحاظ هدف کاربردی، ازنظر روش ترکیبی و ازنظر ماهیت بر اساس روش‌های جدید علم آینده‌پژوهی، است. با توجه به ماهیت این پژوهش، از روش تحلیل ساختاری، </span>MIC MAC <span arial="" lang="FA">&nbsp;و دلفی بهره گرفته‌شده است. برای</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تکمیل</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">پرسشنامه‌ها</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">از</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">روش</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">گلوله</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">برفی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">استفاده</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">شد</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">که</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">درنهایت</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تعداد 80پرسشنامه</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">الکترونیکی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">با</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">پاسخ</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">صحیح</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">به دست</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">آمد. یافته‌های</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">پژوهش</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">نشان</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">می‌دهد تفاوت</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">عددی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تأثیرگذاری</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">و</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تأثیرپذیری</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">ابعاد زیست‌محیطی در مقایسه با ابعاد دیگر&nbsp; قابل‌توجه‌تر</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">می‌باشد.</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">بالاترین رتبه‌های اثرگذاری غیرمستقیم به متغیرهای ناحیه اول به‌خصوص تأمین آب آشامیدنی و غذای سالم و توجه به افزایش فضاهای باز شهری مربوط است. در</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">حالت</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">کلی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">از</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">میان</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">66</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">متغیر</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">بررسی‌شده</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">این</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">پژوهش،30</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">متغیر</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">به‌عنوان</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">متغیرهای</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">کلیدی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">مؤثر</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">برتاب آوری</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">شهر</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">اصفهان</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">انتخاب‌شده</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">است</span>.<span arial="" lang="FA"> همچنین</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">فقط</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">متغیر اعتبارات </span>&nbsp;<span arial="" lang="FA">در</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">این</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تحقیق،</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">نقش</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">متغیر</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">راهبردی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">را</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">به دست</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">آورد</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">و</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">نحوه</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">پراکنش متغیرها</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">در</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">محورهای</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">تأثیرگذاری</span> &ndash; <span arial="" lang="FA">تأثیرپذیری</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">مستقیم</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">و</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">غیرمستقیم،</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">نشان</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">از</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">ناپایداری</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">سیستم دارد.</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">درنهایت،</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">می‌توان</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">نتیجه‌گیری</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">کرد</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">که</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">جهت هرگونه</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">برنامه‌ریزی در راستای </span>&nbsp;<span arial="" lang="FA">تاب‌آوری</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">شهر</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">اصفهان در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی،</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">باید به</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">نقش</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">کلیدی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">و</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">اساسی</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">این</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">متغیرها</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">و</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">عوامل</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">توجه</span> <span arial="" lang="FA">نمود. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div> <br> &nbsp; <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:">One of the biggest challenges of the current century is the phenomenon of climate change. The increase in the number and severity of natural disasters under the influence of climate change has led to unfortunate consequences in various economic, social and environmental dimensions in cities. On the other hand, in recent decades, global efforts and various perspectives have been presented to reduce the harmful consequences of climate change. One of the most important solutions in dealing with these issues is the urban resilience approach in response to climate change, which is called climate resilience. This research is in terms of practical purpose, in terms of combined method and in terms of nature, it is based on new methods of future science. According to the nature of this research, structural analysis, MIC MAC and Delphi methods have been used. The snowball method was used to complete the questionnaires, and finally, 80 electronic questionnaires with correct answers were obtained. The findings of the research show that the numerical difference between the influence and influence of environmental dimensions is more significant compared to other dimensions. The highest ranks of indirect influence are related to the variables of the first area, especially the provision of drinking water and healthy food and attention to the increase in urban open spaces. In general, among the 66 variables examined in this research, 30 variables have been selected as effective key variables for the resilience of Isfahan city. Also, in this research, only the credit variable has achieved the role of a strategic variable, and the way the variables are distributed along the axis of influence - direct and indirect influence, shows the instability of the system. Finally, it can be concluded that for any planning in the direction of resilience of Isfahan city against climate change, it is necessary to pay attention to the key and fundamental role of these variables and factors</span></span></span></div> &nbsp; آینده پژوهی, تاب آوری شهری, تغییرات اقلیمی, پیشران‌های موثر, شهر اصفهان Future studies, resilience city, climate change, drivers affecting, Isfahan city 45 70 http://jvfc.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-871-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Sajad Ghasemi سجاد قاسمی sajadghasemi68@yahoo.com 10031947532846002434 10031947532846002434 No University of Sistan and Baluchestan دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان Zohreh Hadyani زهره هادیانی z.hadyani@gep.usb.ac.ir 10031947532846002435 10031947532846002435 No University of Sistan and Baluchestan دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان Mohsen Hamidianpour محسن حمیدیان پور z.hadyani@gep.usb.ac.ir 10031947532846002436 10031947532846002436 Yes University of Sistan and Baluchestan دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان