fa شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران های کلیدی مؤثر بر وضعیت تحقق شهر شاد با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی (مطالعه موردی: کلان‌شهر کرمانشاه) معماری و شهرسازی Architecture and Urbanism پژوهشي Research <p><span style="font-size:12pt"><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">گسترش</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">شهرنشینی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و رشد</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">شتاب&shy;زده</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">شهرها</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تغییر</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">الگوهای</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">زندگی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">به</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">سمت</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">مدرنیته</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">شدن،</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">مشکلاتی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">را</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">برای</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">شهرها</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">به وجود</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">آورده</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">طوری</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">که</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">شهر</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">به</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">مثابه</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">موجودی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">زنده، شادابی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">سرزندگی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">خود</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">را</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">از دست</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">داده</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">است؛ بنابراین با توجه به آشفتگی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تغییرات</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">پرشتاب</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">مداوم</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">ظهور</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">مسائل</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">جدید در</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">سال&shy;های</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">اخیر،</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تجدیدنظر</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">در</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">رویکردهای</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">کلانِ</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">مدیریتی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">بیش‌ازپیش مورد نیاز</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">است. آینده&shy;پژوهی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">به عنوان رویکردی نوین برای</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">ساختن</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">آینده</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">مطلوب، فرآیندی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">است</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">که</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">منجر</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">به</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">نتیجه پایدار</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">عمل</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">برنامه&shy;ریزی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">می&shy;شود.</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">در</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">این</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">راستا</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">پژوهش حاضر،</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">با بهره&shy;گیری از</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">رویکرد</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">آینده&shy;پژوهی به</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">شناسایی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">مهم‌ترین</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">عوامل</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">مؤثر</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">بررسی میزان</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">چگونگی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تأثیرگذاری</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">این</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">عوامل</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">بر</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">یکدیگر</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">بر</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">وضعیت</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تحقق شهر شاد در کلان&shy;شهر کرمانشاه</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">می&shy;پردازد. پژوهش</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">حاضر</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">با</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">بهره&shy;گیری</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">از تکنیک</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تحلیل</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">اثرات</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">متقاطع</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">که</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">یکی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">از</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">روش&shy;های</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">متداول</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">مورد</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">پذیرش</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">آینده&shy;پژوهی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">است و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">با</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">استفاده</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">از</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">نرم&shy;افزار</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">میک&shy;مک</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">به</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تحلیل متغیرهای</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">شهر شاد در</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">کلان&shy;شهر</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">کرمانشاه</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">پرداخته</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">است. بدین</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">منظور</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">ابتدا</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">با</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">مطالعه</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">اسناد</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">فرادست</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تمامی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">عوامل</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">دخیل</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">در</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تحقق</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و شکوفای</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">شهر شاد</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">مورد</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تحلیل</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">بررسی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">قرار</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">گرفت</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">با</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">استفاده</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">از</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">روش</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">دلفی 23 متغیر به</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">عنوان</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">متغیرهای اولیه اثرگذار بر شهر شاد</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">استخراج</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">شدند، در ادامه تحلیل داده&shy;ها با استفاده از روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل/ساختاری به وسیله نرم‌افزار </span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt">Micmac</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> صورت گرفته است. نتایج</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تحقیق</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">بیانگر آن است</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">که</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">کلان&shy;شهر کرمانشاه با توجه به پراکندگی متغیرها دارای</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">سیستمی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">ناپایدار</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">است</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">در</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">صفحه</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">پراکندگی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">پنج</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">دسته (متغیرهای</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تأثیرگذار،</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">دووجهی،</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تنظیمی،</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">تأثیرپذیر</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">و مستقل)</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">قابل</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">شناسایی</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong><span style="font-size:11.0pt">هستند. در نهایت از میان 23 متغیر شناسایی شده، پس از بررسی میزان و چگونگی تأثیرگذاری این متغیرها بر هم&shy;دیگر و بر وضعیت آینده کلان&shy;شهر کرمانشاه با روش&shy;های مستقیم و غیرمستقیم، 10 عامل کلیدی (توزیع عادلانه امکانات و خدمات شهری و امکان دسترسی متعادل برای استفاده‌کنندگان از فضا، وجود فضاهای مناسب جهت گذراندن اوقات فراغت، تجهیزات مبلمان شهری (سطل زباله، نیمکت، جدول، سایبان ایستگاه‌ها و ...)، ایجاد مکان‌های جمعی به منظور جشن و شادی و رویدادهای شادی‌آفرین، استفاده از نورپردازی شبانه، برخورداری از فضا و فروشگاه&shy;های مختلف با عرضه کالاهای متنوع) و ...که بیشترین نقش را در تحقق شهر شاد در آینده کلان&shy;شهر کرمانشاه دارند، انتخاب شدند.</span></strong></span><br> &nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-size:12pt">The expansion of urbanization and the accelerated growth of cities and the change of human life patterns towards modernity have created problems for cities, so that the city as a living entity has lost its freshness and vitalityit is necessary to reconsider the macro-management approaches and use new tools in planning. Futures studies as a new approach to build a desirable future is a process that leads to a sustainable result of planning. In this regard, the current research, using the future research approach, identifies the most important effective factors and examines the extent and how these factors influence each other and the state of realization of the happy city in Kermanshah metropolis. The current research has analyzed the variables of happy city in Kermanshah metropolis by using the technique of cross-effects analysis, which is one of the common and accepted methods of future research, and by using Micmac software. For this purpose, first by studying the available documents, all the factors involved in the realization and prosperity of happy city were analyzed and investigated<span dir="RTL" lang="FA">. </span>And using the Delphi method, 23 variables were extracted as the primary variables affecting happy city, in the following, the data analysis was done using the interaction/structural effects analysis method by Micmac software. The results of the research show that Kermanshah metropolis has an unstable system according to the dispersion of variables, and five categories (influential, bimodal, regulatory, influential and independent variables) can be identified in the dispersion plane. Finally, among the 23 identified variables, after examining the extent and how these variables affect each other and the future state of Kermanshah metropolis with direct and indirect methods, 10 key factors (equitable distribution of urban facilities and services and possibility Balanced access for space users, the existence of suitable spaces for spending leisure timestation canopies, etc.), creation of collective places for celebration and happiness and joyful events, The use of night lighting, the availability of space and various stores with the supply of various goods) that play the greatest role in the realization of a happy city in the future of Kermanshah metropolis were selected. </span><br> <br> &nbsp;</p> شهر شاد, آینده‌پژوهی, کلان شهر کرمانشاه, MICMAC happy city, Futures studies, Kermanshah metropolis, MICMAC 93 109 http://jvfc.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-892-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Samin yousefi ثمین یوسفی samin.yousefi69@gmail.com 10031947532846002439 10031947532846002439 Yes دانشگاه تهران Milad abbaszadeh میلاد عباس زاده miladabbaszadeh@khuisf.ac.ir 10031947532846002440 10031947532846002440 No دانشگاه آزاد اصفهان Reyhan shirvani ریحانه شیروانی reyhanshirvani77@gmail.com 10031947532846002441 10031947532846002441 No دانشگاه آزاد اصفهان Reza shamsi رضا شمسی rezashams1717@yahoo.com 10031947532846002442 10031947532846002442 No دانشگاه آزاد اصفهان