fa آینده‌نگاری یکپارچگی منطقه‌ای با رویکرد سناریونویسی در حمل‌ونقل نمونه موردی: (فارس - اصفهان) آینده پژوهی Futurology پژوهشي Research <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:12px;"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><a><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">اهمیت</span></span></a> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">بالای</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">حمل‌ونقل</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">و</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">تأثیرگذاری</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">آن</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">بر</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">بسیاری</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">از</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">حوزه‌های</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">اقتصادی،</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">اجتماعی،</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">محیط‌زیست</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">باعث</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">شده</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">که</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">برنامه&shy;ریزان</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">تلاش</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">کنند</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">این موضوع</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">را</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">به‌عنوان ابزاری برای یکپارچگی منطقه&shy;ای به کارگیرند. </span></span><span lang="FA"><span b="" mitra="">آینده&shy;نگاری این امکان را برای متخصصان منطقه&shy;ای فراهم می‌کند تا تدبیری جهت یکپارچگی منطقه&shy;ای پیدا کنند.</span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra=""> روش</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">تحقیق</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">حاضر</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">بر</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">اساس</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">هدف</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">کاربردی و</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">بر اساس</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">شیوه</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">جمع&shy;آوری اطلاعات</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">جزو</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">پژوهش&shy;های</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">اسناد</span></span><span lang="FA"><span b="" mitra="">ی</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">است. به لحاظ فرایند پژوهش</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">در مرحله مبانی نظری شامل شناسایی</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">پتانسیل‌ها</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">و</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">پیشران&shy;های</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">یکپارچگی منطقه&shy;ای فارس و اصفهان است</span></span><span lang="FA"><span b="" mitra="">. سپس در مرحله تحلیل از </span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">طر</span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">ی</span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">ق</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">مصاحبه با</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">کارشناسان وزن‌دهی پیشران‌ها صورت‌گرفته</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">و</span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra=""> با</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">نرم‌افزار</span></span> <span dir="LTR"><span new="" roman="" times="">MICMAC</span></span> &nbsp;<span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">تحلیل</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">شده‌اند. </span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">به‌منظور تحلیل وضعیت موجود و تدوین راهبردها از تکنیک </span></span><span dir="LTR"><span new="" roman="" times="">SWOT</span></span><span lang="FA"><span b="" mitra=""> استفاده گردید. </span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">در پایان برای نوشتن سناریو از پیشران‌هایی استفاده شده که بالاترین میزان اهمیت و بالاترین میزان عدم‌قطعیت را داشته باشند. از برخورد پیشران‌ها و وضعیت‌های احتمالی 8 سناریو برای یکپارچگی منطقه&shy;ای تعریف شد که سناریو طلایه‌دار توسعه تحت بیرق اشتغال به‌عنوان پایدارترین سناریو شناسایی شد.</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">یافته&shy;های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که </span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">تأثیرگذارترین</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">متغیرها</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">شامل</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">مدیریت کارآمد با میزان اثرگذاری 73، تأثیر تحریم‌ها 71، نرخ اشتغال 65 هستند. </span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">ازاین‌رو بنا بر استفاده از مدیریت کارآمد یکپارچه و بهره&shy;گیری از سیاست‌های خنثی‌کننده یا کاهش‌دهنده اثر تحریم‌ها چنانچه در مسیر مناسب حرکت کند موجب توسعه بخش خصوصی، استفاده از نیروهای متخصص همچنین </span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">توسعه صنعت حمل‌ونقل </span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">که از ارکان اصلی یکپارچگی منطقه‌ای در حمل‌ونقل هستند را می‌توان ذکر کرد</span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">.</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" mitra="">لذا</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span b="" mitra="">رویکرد سناریونویسی در حمل‌ونقل به‌صورت یکپارچه با رشد سریعی همراه خواهد بود که منجر به مشارکت نهادهای سرمایه‌گذار و بهبود شرایط عملکردی می‌گردد</span></span><span dir="LTR"><span b="" nazanin="">.</span></span> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="text-autospace:none"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Mitra""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div> <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:black">The high importance of transportation and its impact on many economic, social, and environmental fields has made planners try to use this issue as a tool for regional integration. Foresight provides this possibility for regional experts to find a plan for regional integration. The current research method is based on the practical purpose and based on the method of collecting information among documentary researches. In terms of the research process, in the stage of theoretical foundations, it includes identifying the potentials and drivers of the regional integration of Fars and Isfahan. Then, in the analysis stage, the weighting of the propellants was done through interviews with experts and analyzed with MICMAC software. In order to analyze the current situation and develop strategies, SWOT technique was used. In the end, drivers with the highest importance and the highest uncertainty are used to write the scenario. From the collision of drivers and possible situations, 8 scenarios were defined for regional integration, and the layered scenario of development under the banner of employment was identified as the most stable scenario. The findings of the research show that the most influential variables include efficient management with an impact rate of 73, the impact of sanctions at 71, and the employment rate at 65. Therefore, based on the use of integrated efficient management and the use of policies that neutralize or reduce the effect of sanctions, if it moves in the right direction, it will lead to the development of the private sector, the use of specialized forces, and the development of the transportation industry, which are the main pillars of regional integration in transportation. did Therefore, the approach of scenario writing in transportation will be associated with rapid growth in an integrated manner, which will lead to the participation of investment institutions and the improvement of performance conditions.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div> &nbsp; آینده‌نگاری, یکپارچگی منطقه‌ای, سناریونویسی, حمل‌ونقل future research, regional integration, scenario writing, transportation 97 120 http://jvfc.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-419-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 fatemeh mohebbi فاطمه محبی mahsamo074@gmail.com 10031947532846001326 10031947532846001326 No Masters student Yazd University دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد شهرسازی دانشگاه یزد mohsen rafian محسن رفیعیان mrafian@gmail.com 10031947532846001327 10031947532846001327 Yes Assistant professor of urban planning department Yazd University استادیار گروه شهرسازی دانشگاه یزد