fa تحلیل و بررسی عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر مدیریت کلان شهرها با رویکرد آینده پژوهی (نمونه موردی: شهر کرمانشاه) جغرافیای و برنامه ریزی شهری شهری Geography and Urban Planning پژوهشي Research <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="text-autospace:none"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">نگاه</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">به</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">آینده</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">ترسیم</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">چشم&shy;انداز</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">توسعه</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">شهری،</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">همواره</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">از</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">جمله</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">مسائل</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">برنامه&shy;ریزان</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">مدیران</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">شهری بوده</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">است.</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">امروزه</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">با</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">پیشرفت</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">علم</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">فناوری و سرعت</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">وقوع تغییرات، نیاز</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">به</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">طرح</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">برنامه</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">راهبردی</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">در سطوح مختلف احساس می&shy;شود. از</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">این</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">رو</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">جوامع</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">شهری</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">به</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">تفکری</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">استراتژیک</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">آینده&shy;نگر</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">در</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">سیستم</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">برنامه&shy;ریزی</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و مدیریت</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">به منظور توسعه</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">تحول</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">شهرها</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">نیازمند هستند. هدف پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی عوامل و پیشران‌های کلیدی مؤثر در مدیریت کلان&shy;شهر کرمانشاه و تحلیل روابط بین این عوامل با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری و مشخص کردن سناریوهای محتمل و مطلوب است. بدین منظور، ابتدا با طراحی پرسشنامه، 34 عامل و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">متغیر</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">موثر بر مدیریت کلان&shy;شهر کرمانشاه در ابعاد پنج‌گانه: برنامه‌ریزی</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">مدیریتی؛ کالبدی و فضایی؛ سازوکارهای</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">تأمین</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">مالی؛ زیست&shy;محیطی؛ سیاسی، اجتماعی</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">فرهنگی استخراج</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">گردید. در</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">مرحله</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">بعد</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">با</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">استفاده</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">از</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">تکنیک</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">تأثیرات</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">متقابل (روش تحلیل ساختاری) متغیرها در</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">محیط</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">نرم‌افزار</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:black"> MIC MAC</span></span></b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">امتیازدهی و تحلیل شدند. در</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">این مرحله با</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">توجه به</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">امتیاز</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">تأثیرگذاری</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">تأثیرپذیری، مهمترین عوامل</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">پیشران</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">کلیدی موثر بر مدیریت شهر کرمانشاه انتخاب گردیدند. نتایج رتبه‌بندی متغیرها و پیشران‌های مؤثر نشان داد که متغیرهای: مسئولیت پذیری</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">مدیران</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">مسئولان</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">شهری؛ مشارکت دادن&nbsp;</span></span></b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">مردم&nbsp;</span></span></b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">در&nbsp;</span></span></b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">برنامه‌ریزی،&nbsp;</span></span></b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">تصمیم‌سازی و تصمیم‌گیری؛ توزیع</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">عادلانه</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">امکانات</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">شهری؛ بهره‌گیری از فناوری‌های نوین؛ طرح‌های</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">ساماندهی،</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">بهسازی</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">نوسازی</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">بافت</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">فرسوده&nbsp; و&nbsp; همچنین استفاده از </span></span></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">نیروی</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">انسانی</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">متخصص، به عنوان مهمترین متغیرها انتخاب و بیشترین امتیاز را کسب کرده&shy;اند. نتایج سناریونویسی ویزارد نشان داده است که تعداد 2 سناریوی قوی، 12 سناریوی باورکردنی و 41 سناریوی ضعیف برای مدیریت کلان&shy;شهر کرمانشاه وجود دارد.</span></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></div> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:black">Looking to the future and drawing a vision for urban development are among the issues faced by urban </span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.ir-translate.com/PU/Dictionary/WordPage.aspx?eid=1310608"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:black"><span style="text-decoration:none"><span style="text-underline:none">administration</span></span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:black">. Today, with the advancement of science and technology and the speed of change, there is a need for strategic plans and programs at different levels. Therefore, urban communities need strategic and forward-looking thinking in the planning and management system for the development and transformation of cities. The aim of this research is to identify the, and analyze the relationships between these factors with a foresight approach and identify and analyze possible and desirable scenarios effective in the Kermanshah big city governance. To collect the required data, 34 factors and variables influencing on the Kermanshah big city in the five dimensions including Planning and </span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.ir-translate.com/PU/Dictionary/WordPage.aspx?eid=1310608"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:black"><span style="text-decoration:none"><span style="text-underline:none">administration</span></span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:black">; physical and spatial; financing mechanisms; environmental and political, social and cultural. Were extracted by designing a researcher-made questionnaire. In the next step, using the mutual effects technique (structural analysis method), the variables were scored and analyzed in the MIC MAC software environment. Finally, the drivers and key factors of urban planning were selected according to the impact score. The ranking results of variables and drivers effective in the development of the Kermanshah big city have shown that the variables: Responsibility of urban </span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.ir-translate.com/PU/Dictionary/WordPage.aspx?eid=1310608"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:black"><span style="text-decoration:none"><span style="text-underline:none">administration</span></span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:black">; Involving people in planning, decision-making and decision-making; Fair distribution of urban facilities; Utilization of new technologies; Plans for organizing, improving and renovation urban decay, and use of specialized human resources are the 6 variables that have gained the most points. Wizard scenario writing results have shown that there are 2 strong scenarios, 12 believable scenarios and 41 weak scenarios for the development of Kermanshah province.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp; سناریوی ویزارد, برنامه ریزی شهری, آینده پژوهی, کلان شهر کرمانشاه Vizard scenario, urban planing, futures research, Kermanshah big city 143 159 http://jvfc.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-615-2&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Momamad salavarzi zadeh محمد سلاورزی زاده m.salavarzi@ilam.ac.ir 10031947532846003332 10031947532846003332 Yes Ilam University دانشگاه ایلام Peyman rahimipoor پیمان رحیمی پور fileman89@gmail.com 10031947532846003333 10031947532846003333 No Ilam University دانشگاه ایلام