Volume 1, Issue 1 (Spring 2020 2020)                   JFCV 2020, 1(1): 33-50 | Back to browse issues page

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Ziparo A, Asadzadeh H. Futures Studies of Regional Spatial Structure in Iran (Horizon 2040). JFCV. 2020; 1 (1) :33-50
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-34-en.html
1- Associate Professor, Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Architecture, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
2- PhD Student in Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran , std_h.asadzadeh@khu.ac.ir
Abstract:   (1675 Views)
Iran's spatial structure indicates the existence of imbalances at the territorial level. The message of the imbalance is economic inefficiency, social inequality and polar development. However, the internal imbalances in the spatial structure of different regions mostly indicate the effect of socio-economic behaviours on the formation of the spatial structure of the country. Today, understanding the structure of the space system has forced researchers to use quantitative and qualitative models and methods to determine the lawfulness and its application to space. Scenario-based planning is one of these methods that are widely used in long-term futures studies. This research is considered practical in terms of purpose and in terms of descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The proposed scenarios are also exploratory in terms of typology. The key factors required for the study were extracted from field and documentary studies and Non-probability sampling techniques (Convenience sampling) used to select experts. The interaction effects matrix and MICMAC software were used to Scoring and analyzing data respectively. The research findings showed that The political and spatial concentration of power, the concentration of management and planning, top-down planning are most influential as the top three key factors. Also, the first scenario of the future study of Iran's space structure is the most desirable. In the second scenario, the desired situation is superior to the static and critical situation. In the third scenario, the effective factors are in the intermediate state. In the fourth scenario, which is the opposite of the first scenario, the unfavourable situation prevails over the intermediate and favourable situation. Despite efforts to implement the first scenario, the results show that it has failed.
Full-Text [PDF 1214 kb]   (364 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Geography and Urban Planning
Received: 2019/06/12 | Accepted: 2021/01/26

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