Assistant professor, Department of Tourism Management, Faculty of Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran , f.javan@umz.ac.ir
Abstract: (12 Views)
This study aims to elucidate resilient regeneration patterns in tourism-oriented rural settlements of Western Mazandaran using a futures studies approach. Given the complex and networked nature of rural systems in the region, the main research question focuses on identifying key driving factors and sustainability scenarios. To this end, a mixed-methods methodology was employed, and structural analysis based on MICMAC software, combined with the opinions of 25 experts, was used to examine the interrelationships among economic, social, institutional, environmental, and infrastructural components through a cross-impact matrix. The findings reveal that the resilient regeneration system in these rural areas does not follow a linear structure; rather, it constitutes a fragile network in which integrated management and strategic planning function as dominant drivers and critical bottlenecks. The fundamental challenge of the region lies in the absence of a coordinating mechanism capable of transforming dispersed capacities into synergistic and effective performance. The analysis further indicates that tourism development, when pursued without consideration of ecological carrying capacity and the protection of natural resources, becomes a factor that exacerbates vulnerability. Based on the results, resilient regeneration requires a shift beyond fragmented interventions toward the creation of a synergistic governance ecosystem founded upon three core pillars: the consolidation of integrated governance and policymaking, the active protection of environmental resources, and the strengthening of local community participation. The study concludes that success in this process depends on the “engineering of relationships” among system components and the activation of synergies between institutions and stakeholders. These strategies provide the necessary potential for transitioning from the current fragile structure to a sustainable, adaptive, and self-regulating model, thereby transforming the system into a resilient “engine of regeneration.”
Keywords: Resilient Regeneration, Rural Tourism Destinations, Futures Studies, Driving Forces of Development, Sustainable Rural Development, Western Mazandaran.
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