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Shaddel L, kashiri H. Qualitative Scenario Writing in the Development of Multi-level Urban Governance in Tehran Metropolis. JFCV 2025; 6 (1)
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-347-en.html
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-347-en.html
Qualitative Scenario Writing in the Development of Multi-level Urban Governance in Tehran Metropolis
1- Ferdowsi University of Mashhad , lia.shaddel@gmail.com
2- Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch
2- Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch
Abstract: (711 Views)
| The objectives of this research are set in two theoretical and experimental areas. The theoretical goal is to determine the influencing factors on the development of multi-level urban governance. The experimental aim of the research emphasizes on formulating scenarios for the development of multi-level urban governance of Tehran metropolis in the horizon of 2034. The research method is a mixed method. The first objective was evaluated using a qualitative method. At first, the researches conducted in two areas of urban governance and multi-level governance were collected. In the field of urban governance, many researches have been conducted and its indicators are consistent in all researches. In the field of multi-level governance, two articles were found in the search of internal studies and 41 articles were found in the search of external sources. In the search for external sources, the Web of Science database was selected. The collected papers were analyzed by the method of content analysis and the effective factors on the development of multi-level urban governance were identified. To achieve the second goal, the exploratory scenario writing method was used, which is based on the school of intuitive logic. Based on the integration of several exploratory scenario writing processes, the stages of scenario development were defined in 9 steps. The factors obtained in the first objective were used as effective factors in scenario writing. In this process, 9 semi-structured interviews were conducted and 27 questionnaires were completed. The results showed that 13 factors are effective in the development of multi-level urban governance. Using Wilson's matrix, 8 factors were selected as drivers. The scenarios were developed using the morphological matrix. The three developed scenarios were named " Mohtasab Urban Reign ", " Baladiyeh Urban Governance " and "Efficient urban management". |
Keywords: Intuitive logic, Morphological matrix: Multilevel urban governance, Qualitative scenario formulating, Tehran
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