Volume 6, Issue 2 (8-2025)
JFCV 2025, 6(2): 0-0 |
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Amirian S, Shahinifar M. Identification and analysis of key drivers for improving physical resilience against earthquake risk (case study: Kermanshah metropolis). JFCV 2025; 6 (2)
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-395-en.html
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-395-en.html
1- Payame Noor University , s_amirian@pnu.ac.ir
2- Payame Noor University
2- Payame Noor University
Abstract: (141 Views)
Considering that it is not possible to prevent the occurrence of an earthquake or the time of its occurrence cannot be predicted, but with the help of the science of future studies, it is possible to prepare for an earthquake and provide solutions to deal with it or reduce its vulnerability. These solutions will increase initiatives and ideas for strengthening and resilience of the city against earthquakes. In this regard, the current research, using the future studies approach, identifies the most important effective factors and investigates the extent and how these factors affect each other and the promotion of physical resilience against the risk of earthquake in Kermanshah metropolis. The current research has analyzed the variables of physical resilience in Kermanshah metropolis by using the technique of cross-effects analysis, which is one of the common and accepted methods of future studies, and by using Micmac software. For this purpose, first, by studying the available documents, all the factors affecting physical resilience against earthquake risk were analyzed and investigated, and using the Delphi method, 20 variables were extracted as primary variables influencing the promotion of physical resilience against earthquake risk. The data was analyzed using the interaction/structural effects analysis method by Micmac software. The results of the research show that Kermanshah metropolis has an unstable system according to the dispersion of variables, and five categories (influential, bimodal, regulatory, influential and independent variables) can be identified in the dispersion plane. Finally, among the 20 identified variables, after examining the extent and how these variables affect each other and the future state of the physical resilience of Kermanshah metropolis with direct and indirect methods, 7 key factors were identified, respectively: building density; distance from the fault; population density; topography; access to main roads; The quality of buildings and the reconstruction and improvement of unstable buildings, which play the greatest role in improving physical resilience against the risk of earthquakes in Kermanshah metropolis. Following are suggestions based on these key drivers.
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