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the current research has been carried out with the aim of evaluating possible scenarios in the formation of the ecological city of Shandiz, the tourist star of Khorasan Razavi province, in the horizon of 1410. To achieve this goal, six main steps of scenario writing were followed and quantitative and qualitative studies were carried out. done. At first, in the form of a questionnaire (in two dimensions, the degree of influence and uncertainty), 24 experts in the field of ecological city were asked for their opinion. By means of descriptive and inferential statistical tests, the effective factors of prioritization and then the critical drivers that shape the scenarios were determined. In order to determine the logic of the scenarios, develop the scenarios, examine the consequences and also determine the strategies, an interview was conducted with 20 experts who were selected by the theoretical saturation method with the semi-structured interview tool. The results of the research show that the three scenarios of ecological tourism stars, the unstable orbiting machine tourism city and the Iron Forest are conceivable for the future of Shandiz city in relation to the ecological city. Finally, strategies have been presented for the city of Shandiz to reach the desired scenario.

Keywords: Urban planning, ecological city scenario, Shandiz tourism city

     

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