Due to its specific natural and geographical conditions, the city of Gorgan is prone to numerous shocks, including earthquakes and floods. This highlights the need to pay attention to the concept of urban resilience. The present study aims to identify the driving factors of the housing planning system in Tehran with a futures research approach. The present article is practical in terms of its purpose, and considering the components under study, the dominant approach is a descriptive-analytical method. In the present study, a purposive sampling method was used to consciously select participants. The basis for using the purposive sampling method is to select a group of experts who are aware of the nature of the research for in-depth study or general understanding. Based on the above explanations, the statistical population of the present study is 60 experts in the field of urban planning, including university professors specializing in the field under study. The size of the sample considered for the Delphi technique is 10 people, and for the implementation of the interaction analysis in the Miqmac software, the sample size was considered to be 60 people, considering the familiarity of the experts with this software. The findings of this study showed that the drivers of housing stock and their lifespan, appropriate establishment and location of public buildings, dredging of river routes, compliance with urban laws in the development of urban services and physical growth of the city, appropriate built density of housing, use of resistant and appropriate structures in buildings, gradation and compatibility of uses, appropriate distance from rivers and valleys, structural and functional stability of urban facilities such as technical buildings, passages, bridges and tunnels, play a role as key drivers in physical resilience in the city of Gorgan.

Keywords: Urban resilience, physical component, natural hazards, Gorgan city

     

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