Amirarsalan Moradi Sangachini1 
, Amirhossein Tajbakhsh1 , Ali Kazemnejad1 , Hamidreza Saremi2 , Khatereh Moghani Rahimi3
, Amirhossein Tajbakhsh1 , Ali Kazemnejad1 , Hamidreza Saremi2 , Khatereh Moghani Rahimi3
1- Master student in urban planning, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Art and Architecture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2- Associate Professor, Department of Urban planning and Design, Faculty of Arts and Architecture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. ,saremi@modares.ac.ir
3- PhD Candidate, Department of Urban planning and Design, Faculty of Arts and Architecture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2- Associate Professor, Department of Urban planning and Design, Faculty of Arts and Architecture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. ,
3- PhD Candidate, Department of Urban planning and Design, Faculty of Arts and Architecture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract: (29 Views)
| This study focuses on scenario-based strategic planning to explore the future development of District 5 of Tehran, a rapidly evolving urban area. The research identifies key drivers of change, analyzes their potential impacts, and constructs plausible future scenarios to guide sustainable urban development. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the study combines qualitative data from library research and semi-structured interviews with urban planning experts to identify critical drivers, such as economic factors, land use, transportation infrastructure, and environmental concerns. These drivers were then assessed for their importance and uncertainty through a questionnaire and expert evaluation. In the next phase, the interrelationships between the drivers were analyzed using the MICMAC software, which facilitated the identification of critical factors influencing future outcomes. Based on these findings, seven development scenarios were generated using the Scenario Wizard tool, ranging from stable economic conditions with balanced growth to scenarios involving economic downturns and urban challenges. The results highlight that key drivers such as income and employment, investment, housing prices, inflation, and urban infrastructure play pivotal roles in shaping the future trajectory of District 5. The study emphasizes the critical importance of scenario-based planning in addressing urban complexities and guiding strategic decision-making for sustainable and resilient urban development. |
Keywords: District 5 of Tehran, Metropolitan Tehran, Strategic Planning, Scenario-Based Planning, Foresight
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