Volume 5, Issue 4 (1-2025)
JFCV 2025, 5(4): 25-43 |
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Taherian H, salehpour servak Z, Rizvani Z, Babamirsathehi S. Identifying effective vital drivers in urban tourism with a future research approach and developing the most favorable scenario (case study: Ferdous city). JFCV 2025; 5 (4) : 2
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-349-en.html
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-349-en.html
1- University of Tehran
2- Yasouj Islamic Azad University ,z1salehpour@gmail.com
2- Yasouj Islamic Azad University ,
Abstract: (3620 Views)
Objective: The tourism industry is widely regarded as one of the most crucial service sectors globally due to its significant impact on the development of countries. This research aims to identify the key factors that will impact the future of tourism in Ferdous city and create practical plans based on the specific abilities and strengths of each region and city.
Method: This study is categorized as an applied research with a descriptive-analytical purpose. It utilizes a combination of library and survey methods, and adopts a future research approach. The researchers conducted qualitative sampling by interviewing 30 experts in the tourism industry. The data was analyzed using the cross-impact analysis method and ScenarioWizard software.
Results: The study identified 46 drivers and found that 9 of them, namely, specialized hot mineral water tours, soft infrastructure, tourism advertising, expert manpower, accommodation for all tastes and costs, tourism rules and regulations, accommodation infrastructure, tourism insurance, and natural power drivers, had significant impact on the future of tourism in Ferdous city. In addition, the above-mentioned scenario was used to extract four distinct scenarios. Out of these scenarios, the second one was identified as the most favorable. Additionally, two moderately positive scenarios were identified, and one scenario presented a critical situation for the future of tourism in the city.
Conclusion: Based on the results of the scenarios, for proper planning and policymaking in the tourism sector of the county, attention to local experts, natural capabilities focusing on hot springs, and their role in the prosperity of health tourism, consideration of cultural and historical heritage, and the tourism potential of the desert, along with utilizing the capacity of virtual space and structural planning to harness the potential of the private sector, are the top priorities.
Method: This study is categorized as an applied research with a descriptive-analytical purpose. It utilizes a combination of library and survey methods, and adopts a future research approach. The researchers conducted qualitative sampling by interviewing 30 experts in the tourism industry. The data was analyzed using the cross-impact analysis method and ScenarioWizard software.
Results: The study identified 46 drivers and found that 9 of them, namely, specialized hot mineral water tours, soft infrastructure, tourism advertising, expert manpower, accommodation for all tastes and costs, tourism rules and regulations, accommodation infrastructure, tourism insurance, and natural power drivers, had significant impact on the future of tourism in Ferdous city. In addition, the above-mentioned scenario was used to extract four distinct scenarios. Out of these scenarios, the second one was identified as the most favorable. Additionally, two moderately positive scenarios were identified, and one scenario presented a critical situation for the future of tourism in the city.
Conclusion: Based on the results of the scenarios, for proper planning and policymaking in the tourism sector of the county, attention to local experts, natural capabilities focusing on hot springs, and their role in the prosperity of health tourism, consideration of cultural and historical heritage, and the tourism potential of the desert, along with utilizing the capacity of virtual space and structural planning to harness the potential of the private sector, are the top priorities.
Article number: 2
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