hormozgan uni , mojtabasalimi@hormozgan.ac.ir
Abstract: (22 Views)
This study employs a spatial foresight approach to evaluate and predict suitable lands for sustainable development of Bandar Abbas, a strategic coastal city in southern Iran facing rapid population growth and horizontal expansion. Six main criteria (ecological, physical-structural, natural-physical, tourism, accessibility, and socio-economic) encompassing 34 sub-criteria were defined. Weighting was performed using Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (Fuzzy-ANP) in Super Decisions software. Land suitability mapping was carried out using fuzzy operators (SUM, PRODUCT, GAMMA 0.9) within ArcGIS, followed by TOPSIS ranking for 52 urban neighborhoods. Land use change prediction up to 2040 was simulated using Landsat imagery (2000, 2013, 2020), SVM classification (overall accuracy 88%, Kappa 0.85), Markov chain analysis, and Land Change Modeler (LCM). Results indicate that ecological (weight 0.256) and natural-physical (weight 0.194) criteria exert the highest influence on land suitability. Approximately 36% of the study area (2,275 hectares) was identified as suitable for urban development, primarily concentrated along the southern coastal strip and central districts. Five neighborhoods—Khajeh-Ata (0.874), Nayband-e-Jonubi (0.831), Sim-e-Bala (0.795), Kargozari (0.772), and Esmbik (0.754)—all characterized by distressed urban fabric, ranked highest for smart growth potential. LCM projections indicate an increase of 2,138 hectares (9.2%) in urban settlements by 2040, alongside a reduction of 2,838 hectares (57.1%) in barren lands, with development directed northeastward. Given the scarcity of suitable lands outside the current city limits due to constraints including the sea, highlands, fault lines, and land subsidence, further horizontal expansion toward the northwest is unsustainable. Regenerating distressed urban fabrics in priority neighborhoods and directing development northeastward under a smart growth framework are essential strategies for the sustainable management of Bandar Abbas.
Keywords: Urban Foresight, Bandar Abbas Coastal City, Fuzzy-ANP LCM Model, Smart Land Use Change Prediction
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