Volume 3, Issue 3 (12-2022)
JFCV 2022, 3(3): 97-120 |
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mohebbi F, rafian M. Foresight of regional integration with a scenario writing approach in transportation Case example: (Fars - Isfahan). JFCV 2022; 3 (3) : 6
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-219-en.html
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-219-en.html
1- Masters student Yazd University
2- Assistant professor of urban planning department Yazd University , mrafian@gmail.com
2- Assistant professor of urban planning department Yazd University , mrafian@gmail.com
Abstract: (1151 Views)
The high importance of transportation and its impact on many economic, social, and environmental fields has made planners try to use this issue as a tool for regional integration. Foresight provides this possibility for regional experts to find a plan for regional integration. The current research method is based on the practical purpose and based on the method of collecting information among documentary researches. In terms of the research process, in the stage of theoretical foundations, it includes identifying the potentials and drivers of the regional integration of Fars and Isfahan. Then, in the analysis stage, the weighting of the propellants was done through interviews with experts and analyzed with MICMAC software. In order to analyze the current situation and develop strategies, SWOT technique was used. In the end, drivers with the highest importance and the highest uncertainty are used to write the scenario. From the collision of drivers and possible situations, 8 scenarios were defined for regional integration, and the layered scenario of development under the banner of employment was identified as the most stable scenario. The findings of the research show that the most influential variables include efficient management with an impact rate of 73, the impact of sanctions at 71, and the employment rate at 65. Therefore, based on the use of integrated efficient management and the use of policies that neutralize or reduce the effect of sanctions, if it moves in the right direction, it will lead to the development of the private sector, the use of specialized forces, and the development of the transportation industry, which are the main pillars of regional integration in transportation. did Therefore, the approach of scenario writing in transportation will be associated with rapid growth in an integrated manner, which will lead to the participation of investment institutions and the improvement of performance conditions.
Article number: 6
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