1- PhD Candidate, Department of Geography, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2- Professor, Department of Geography, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran ,s-khaledi@sbu.ac.ir
3- Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2- Professor, Department of Geography, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran ,
3- Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract: (28 Views)
This study aims to project precipitation trends in Tehran under climate change conditions. Precipitation data from five synoptic stations (Chitgar, Doshan Tappeh, Geophysics, Shemiran, and Mehrabad) were analyzed for the period 1992–2018. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were applied to detect trends and possible breakpoints. In addition, precipitation data from the five stations were analyzed using seven climate models from the Sixth Assessment Report (CMIP6) for the period 2030–2100 under two emission scenarios: SSP2_4.5 and SSP5_8.5. The results indicate that the SSP5_8.5 scenario projects more intense changes in precipitation compared to SSP2_4.5. Analysis across the stations shows significant differences between the two scenarios. While both scenarios suggest an overall increase in precipitation, the SSP5_8.5 scenario predicts stronger and more significant increases, particularly in spring and autumn. These findings highlight the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies and more effective policies. Moreover, the projected increase in precipitation under SSP5_8.5 emphasizes the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving water resource management to cope with climate change impacts. Overall, the study underlines the necessity of precise climate policies and sustainable urban planning approaches for Tehran’s future resilience.
Keywords: Climate Change, Sustainable City, CMIP6, Tehran Metropolitan Area, Precipitation Area, Precipitation.
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