Volume 7, Issue 2 (7-2026)
JFCV 2026, 7(2): 0-0 |
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ahmadi M, ahmadi M, ahmadi M. Institutional Transformation Scenarios for Tehran Metropolitan Governance Based on the Analysis of Legal and Administrative Drivers. JFCV 2026; 7 (2)
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-534-en.html
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-534-en.html
1- , ziviyar@iausr.ac.it
Abstract: (33 Views)
The Tehran metropolitan region faces institutional fragmentation and the absence of cross-sectoral coordination mechanisms. Despite their relative clarity, existing laws lack the capacity to establish effective coordination among multiple institutions involved in regional management. This study aims to develop institutional transformation scenarios for Tehran metropolitan governance based on the analysis of relevant drivers. The research is applied-developmental in terms of its objective and exploratory in nature, employing a foresight-oriented approach. The statistical population consists of experts working in organizations involved in the management of the Tehran metropolitan region, and a purposive sampling method was used to select 15 experts. The research was conducted in four main stages: initial identification of drivers through interviews, screening through the Delphi method, construction of a cross-impact matrix, structural analysis using the MICMAC software, and scenario development. The findings indicate that, among the 26 identified drivers, 13 drivers are located in the key/strategic zone. Four key factors—including fragmentation and conflicts among jurisdictions, enforcement capacity of laws and regulations, cross-sectoral coordination mechanisms, and institutional accountability and oversight—were selected as the final critical drivers for scenario construction. Based on the combination of desirable and undesirable states of these four factors, three plausible scenarios were developed: the desirable scenario (integrated governance), the probable scenario (continuation of the current situation), and the undesirable scenario (institutional fragmentation and decline). The results demonstrate that achieving the desirable scenario requires a fundamental revision of legal frameworks, the establishment of a regional coordinating institution, and the implementation of a cross-sectoral accountability and monitoring system
Keywords: Institutional transformation, Tehran metropolitan governance, Legal and administrative drivers, Regional
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