1- Department of Geography, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz , malekis@scu.ac.ir
2- Department of Geography, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2- Department of Geography, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
Abstract: (140 Views)
Today, one of the most important challenges of the present and future, especially in the arid regions of the world, is the problem of water scarcity and in some cases water crisis. Water tensions at the internal level of the countries are also seen among the residents of rural and urban places. The purpose of this study is to identify the key factors affecting water stress in the Ahwaz metropolis, relying on the foresight approach. First, with a systematic and structural view based on theoretical foundations, and using the Delphi method, the indicators and variables affecting water stress in the metropolis of Ahvaz in the 5 dimensions of institutional-management, natural-environmental, political, social-cultural, Economic, and infrastructural-physical were extracted. After compiling the scenarios, the interpretation and validity of each scenario were examined through interviews with experts, and the consequences of each scenario were analyzed and interpreted. In this regard, in the current research to identify the most important indicators and variables affecting the future of water security in Ahvaz metropolis in the horizon of 1420, 72 key factors affecting water tensions were identified.
Among the 72 known key factors, after monitoring (combining overlaps, removing unrelated and ambiguous items, and making necessary corrections), 46 influencing variables of water tensions on the security of urban spaces of the Ahvaz metropolis were extracted.
Among the 46 investigated factors, 16 factors played a major role as key factors affecting water stress caused by climate change in the Ahvaz metropolis and were recognized as the main actors. Finally, 48 possible situations were considered for the future of this metropolis, which included a range of favorable to critical conditions.
2 strong scenarios, 4 scenarios with high adaptability (believable scenarios), and 9999 weak scenarios, which scenarios with high adaptability (number of the above 4 scenarios), indicate the effective ruling situation on the future of water tensions caused by climate change on the security of urban spaces in Ahvaz metropolis.
The results show that 4 scenarios are more likely to occur regarding water tensions and the future of the Ahvaz metropolis.
Among the 72 known key factors, after monitoring (combining overlaps, removing unrelated and ambiguous items, and making necessary corrections), 46 influencing variables of water tensions on the security of urban spaces of the Ahvaz metropolis were extracted.
Among the 46 investigated factors, 16 factors played a major role as key factors affecting water stress caused by climate change in the Ahvaz metropolis and were recognized as the main actors. Finally, 48 possible situations were considered for the future of this metropolis, which included a range of favorable to critical conditions.
2 strong scenarios, 4 scenarios with high adaptability (believable scenarios), and 9999 weak scenarios, which scenarios with high adaptability (number of the above 4 scenarios), indicate the effective ruling situation on the future of water tensions caused by climate change on the security of urban spaces in Ahvaz metropolis.
The results show that 4 scenarios are more likely to occur regarding water tensions and the future of the Ahvaz metropolis.
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