Volume 5, Issue 3 (10-2024)
JFCV 2024, 5(3): 19-39 |
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Shirvani Naghani M. Strategic Foresight for the Urban Tourism Industry in Iran (Case: Qazvin City). JFCV 2024; 5 (3) :19-39
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-360-en.html
URL: http://jvfc.ir/article-1-360-en.html
Assistant Professor, Imam Khomeini International University (rh), Qazvin, Iran , shirvani@soc.ikiu.ac.ir
Abstract: (1679 Views)
In today's programming, a linear look to the future has given way to a multiple look at alternative futures with the help of new approaches such as strategic foresight. In the field of tourism, the use of strategic foresight in the planning system has been considered. The purpose of this research is to develop tourism scenarios in Qazvin. The overall research method is scenario. "Delphi" and "AHP" techniques are used to identify "critical factors". The research findings, based on different situations of critical factors and their interaction with the help of the "Scenario Wizard software", show the possibility of 28 scenarios with internal consistency, which five of these scenarios have priority in terms of effectiveness. In addition to having a functional aspect, this research can serve as a new model for the future research of the urban tourism industry in Iran. Finally, there are general recommendations for dealing with scenarios.
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